Aftertaste of American Occupation
On October 27 last year, members of the Iraqi federal parliament voted by a majority vote to pass a vote of confidence in the cabinet proposed by the new prime minister, Mohammed al-Sudani. The country’s new president, Abdel Latif Rashid, has announced that the political crisis in Iraq is over.
The majority of the people greeted the optimism of the new authorities with great skepticism: people are used to the fact that crises are a permanent condition of the “new democratic” Iraq. Premonitions were justified: in January, the national currency collapsed so much that the head of government fired the governor of the Central Bank and the governor of the Trade Bank of Iraq. And Prime Minister M. al-Sudani met with members of the Federation of Chambers of Commerce and decided to increase the flow of US dollars to the Trade Bank of Iraq to restore and stabilize the value of the Iraqi currency.
It is not entirely clear what powers the Iraqi prime minister has in this matter, especially given that since November the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York «began to tighten control over the international dollar transactions of commercial Iraqi banks in an attempt to stop money laundering and illegal pumping of dollars to Iran and other countries in the Middle East, which are subject to severe sanctions.”
After the flow of cash dollars from the US to Iraq fell from about $240 million to $22 million a day, there was a sharp drop in the value of the national currency to almost 1,500 dinars per dollar. For reference, in the 1980s, under Saddam Hussein, one Iraqi dinar was worth three US dollars, which was a fixed exchange rate.
The depreciation of the dinar hit consumer prices and household incomes. Huge social stratification already influenced the mood in society: in Baghdad, salaries could be dozens of times higher than the incomes of citizens of other regions. And now the situation has also affected the residents of the capital, who protested at mass demonstrations. It is worth noting that Iraq still does not have an approved budget for 2023. The fall of the economy may lead to an increase in the recruitment base for Islamic extremists, and they have not gone away, despite Baghdad’s victorious reports of a “complete and final” victory over the IS* group banned in Russia back in 2017. High militant activity is still noted in the provinces of Anbar, Salah al-Din, Diyala, Kirkuk, Neinava and even in the vicinity of Baghdad.
On January 11, the U.S.-led International Coalition Against ISIS said that «in 2022, Iraqi forces, together with partner units, conducted 191 operations, in which at least 220 Islamic militants were killed and 159 ISIS supporters were detained.» The communique ended with the phrase: «We will continue to help the Iraqi security forces in the fight against ISIS.» There are reasons for this: in January, Islamist militants continued to carry out ambushes, detonate land mines and attack army convoys. To conduct operations, the command of the Iraqi Armed Forces was repeatedly forced to involve combat aircraft.
Prime Minister al-Sudani spoke in favor of maintaining the American contingent in Iraq in one form or another, and at a meeting with NATO representatives he asked the alliance for additional military assistance. It would seem a paradox: Mohammed al-Sudani led the government largely thanks to the support of pro-Iranian parties and groups that insist on the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. The politician himself says: «I don’t think it’s impossible for Iraq to have good relations with Iran and the US.» And then he declares that he would like to send a high-level delegation to Washington in the near future, perhaps as a prelude to a meeting with President Joe Biden.
The task of maintaining good relations simultaneously with two countries that are in a state of cold war, when they periodically cross a fine line and exchange blows, is much more difficult than just trying to sit on two chairs at once. However, Baghdad has no choice — it depends on both the United States and Iran. Not surprisingly, the Iraqi authorities are trying to maneuver. Visits to Tehran are combined with the development of relations with Saudi Arabia, one of Iran’s main rivals in the region. But the main vector is marked — the rate on the West prevails.
In late December, Italian Prime Minister George Meloni visited Iraq. M. al-Sudani assured that his country «is ready to supply Italy with what it needs in terms of oil and gas,» and stressed that Iraq is the second largest oil producer in OPEC. The head of the Italian government inspected the Italian military personnel who, through NATO and as part of the operation, are training units of the Iraqi army, as well as Peshmerga formations in autonomous Kurdistan.
Negotiations between the prime ministers of Italy and Iraq in Baghdad (on the left — the flag of Ireland)
During the visit, there was an embarrassment: the protocol service of the Iraqi Foreign Ministry used the Irish flag instead of the Italian one. In Baghdad, they tried to turn everything into a joke: they say that there are so many foreign delegations that the employees do not have time to change their national flags. It wasn’t very convincing…
On January 26, the Iraqi prime minister arrived in Paris, where he met with high-ranking French officials. At the Elysee Palace, M. al-Sudani and Emmanuel Macron signed an agreement on strategic partnership. The head of the Iraqi government said: «My friend Mr. Macron and I have signed a strategic partnership agreement that sets out a roadmap for expanding the horizons of cooperation between our two countries in various fields.»
Signing of the Strategic Agreement between Iraq and France
The Iraqi Prime Minister also met with UNESCO Director General Audrey Azoulay. This UN entity for education, science and culture has taken the initiative to participate in the reconstruction of Mosul, in particular the Great Mosque of An-Nuri. M. al-Sudani welcomed the initiative and declared his readiness for further cooperation and inclusion of the ancient monuments of Iraq in the World Heritage List.
And what about Russia? In December, Russian Ambassador to Iraq Elbrus Kutrashev gave a long interview to the RIA Novosti agency, in which he noted: “As soon as the Iraqis cope with their current problems, we will deal with issues of our dialogue with them at the highest political level, including visits.” However, in January, at a press conference on the results of the work of Russian diplomacy in 2022, Foreign Minister S.V. Lavrov spoke more optimistically: “We are not abandoning our efforts on the Palestinian issue, and on Syria, and on the Libyan settlement, and on Iraq. Now we are planning high-level contacts with our Iraqi colleagues.” Taking into account the results achieved earlier in these areas, I would like to wish new successes and achievements.
Der Friedensstifter 