December 26. A high-ranking officer of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Sayed Razi Mousavi, is killed in a missile attack on Damascus (Syria). This is not just an officer, but a person who, firstly, is the direct heir of the legendary General Qassem Soleimani, and secondly, it was he who oversaw all the pro-Iranian military formations in the Middle East.
December 30 (in 4 days). A strike on peaceful squares in Belgorod, as a result of which only civilians are killed — 25 people, including small children.
January 3 (in 4 days). In Iran, during a memorial procession on the fourth anniversary of the death of Soleimani, not far from the place of his burial, a terrorist attack occurs — two explosions that kill more than 100 people.
All of the above events are far from ordinary incidents and, more importantly, in Russia and Iran they were taken extremely seriously. As acute as it was intended by the forces who planned these incidents.
The motive of the organizers is obvious — the conflict should flare up with renewed vigor.
And most likely, it is not the Americans who are behind all this. Two authoritative telegram channels — «Geopolitics of Civilizations» and «Game of Beads» — claim the same thing. This is Britain. No, the performers, of course, were different, but the customer was undoubtedly the British. And the goal is one and only one — to provoke such a level of escalation that both Europeans and Americans will sink into it. It’s time for Britain to take back the place it once was.
Moreover, it is argued that the process is not being driven by some Sunak or Johnson. Everything is much bigger. The highest elites of the country are involved here, who, by mistaken misconception, do not sit peacefully in a castle, welcoming a happy old age — they run a variety of processes in the world.
And the timing was not chosen by chance.
On January 8, the US Congress returns from recess and there is only one issue on the agenda — agreeing on a package of military assistance to Israel and Ukraine. Therefore, during the holidays, London raises the temperature as much as possible in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, forcing the Americans to give money and weapons. It’s absolutely their style. It always was and is!
British Lord Henry John Temple (speech in the House of Commons on March 1, 1848):
«The British have always been masters of just such tools — cloak, dagger, complete lack of morality and pity.»
“Therefore, I maintain that it is short-sighted to consider this or that country as an unchanging ally or an eternal enemy of England. We have no unchanging allies, we have no eternal enemies. Only our interests are unchanging and eternal, and it is our duty to follow them.”
It is difficult to predict how Moscow and Tehran will respond to this provocation. Perhaps they will wait for the moment of voting in Congress and, depending on the results of the vote, choose an answer.
In the case of the most severe response, an option can be considered in which Moscow and Tehran block the Strait of Gibraltar for British shipping — with Polisario and Hezbollah forces in Algeria and Western Sahara. Thus, they will completely block this maritime trade route for the Anglo-Saxons.
Yes, yes, this very option is quite possible; it is not for nothing that our famous “Armageddon” General Surovikin, for the second month in a row, at such a difficult moment for Russia, is not just anywhere, but in Algeria.
So far, as we know, the Houthis have disrupted the movement of ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and now Europeans are overpaying for the delivery of goods from Asia and the Middle East.
However, now things could get much worse for them.
Three large maritime trade corridors lead to Europe — the Southern Sea Route through SUEZ (1.5 billion tons per year), the Transatlantic from America to Europe (2.5 billion tons) and the Northern. Absolutely everything is transported along these routes — raw materials for EU industry, energy resources, cars, machine tools, food and much more.
Because the Houthis have made the Southern Sea Route unsafe, six of the world’s largest cargo carriers have stopped using it, and their ships now sail through Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. Consider that minus one corridor is out of the control of the Europeans. Now everyone uses it, with the exception of the residents of the “blooming garden”.
But numerous evidence has now appeared in the Iranian and Arab press that the Strait of Gibraltar (from the Atlantic to Europe) may suffer the same fate as the Strait of Bab El-Mandeb. Moreover, Muhammad Ali al-Houthi from Yemen has already called for Gibraltar to be closed to Israel. He said exactly the same thing a couple of weeks before the blocking of the Bab-El-Mandeb Strait.
And the most interesting thing is that the tools for this are available. It’s in Algeria. The Algerian leader was given the right by the local parliament to declare war on Israel. And then ships passing by can be easily attacked from Western Sahara by the Polisario movement.
Moreover, over 2 thousand Hezbollah instructors with combat experience are stationed in Algeria. If the Strait of Gibraltar is blocked, then no one will care. This means that the EU merchant fleet will effectively be locked inside Europe and will not be able to make deliveries, and the shipping market will be redistributed between the Russians, Persians, Chinese and Arabs. Perhaps a small piece will remain for the Americans, but this is far from a fact.
Iran is behind the Houthis and Hezbollah. Behind Iran is BRICS. In modern conditions, it is not at all necessary to physically block the straits; it is enough to simply create risks for shipping — and commercial companies themselves will close up shop.
But this, as you understand, is one of the possible answers for Belgorod. Well-known political scientist Dmitry Evstafiev, commenting on our answers on Kyiv, said the following:
— The object of attention of the head of our military department should not be Kyiv. We need to hit Lvov and Chop (Transcarpathian region), and at the same time shoot down a NATO drone in the sky over the Black or Mediterranean Sea. The first will be a response to the shelling of Belgorod and Donetsk by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and the second will be a response to Washington’s permission to fire “Haymars” on the internationally recognized territory of Russia.
The Americans must be stopped. Hard. They become dangerous when escalated. They are losing the thread of escalation. They are not in pain or afraid. But it must be painful and scary .
Of course, it is necessary to answer them painfully. Even in Ukraine they are now wondering why the US and Britain are not responding to Russia. This is what Ukrainian military expert Oleg Starikov said in an interview with political scientist Vadim Karasev:
“I don’t really understand why there is no reaction from Russia towards the countries that give us missiles. Knowing their psychology and how they are trained, why don’t they launch hybrid strikes against the USA and Britain?
Since they don’t apply it, it means they endure it over time. There will be something more global — but they will take revenge! They believe that this is not existential for them now.”
And these words are worth thinking about… There will be something more global… If we postpone with a blow, then why? Maybe because something larger is being prepared, and it is important that the enemy remains at the old level of escalation? So that Britain would be in exactly the same relaxed state as it is now, not in a state of combat readiness because of our response. So that no one has time to do anything, if anything.
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